Bayesian calibration of a model describing carbon, water and heat fluxes for a Swedish boreal forest stand

Magnus Svensson, Per-Erik Jansson, David Gustafsson, Dan Berggren Kleja, Ola Langvall and Anders Lindroth

Ecological Modelling, 2008, vol. 213, issue 3, 331-344

Abstract: This study quantified major fluxes of carbon (C), heat and water, including uncertainty estimates, in a boreal forest in northern Sweden, using a process-based model (CoupModel) and Bayesian calibration methodology. Coupled C, water and heat fluxes were described together with estimated uncertainties for all major components of the simulated C budget. Simulated mean gross primary production was 641±74gCm−2yr−1, total ecosystem respiration 570±55gCm−2yr−1 and net ecosystem productivity 71±37gCm−2yr−1. Most high-resolution measurements were well described but some interesting exceptions arose between model and measurements, e.g. latent heat flux was overestimated and field layer (understory) root litter production underestimated. Bayesian calibration reduced the assumed prior parameter ranges in 30 of 33 parameters, thus reducing the uncertainty in the estimates. There was a high degree of couplings between different sub-models and processes in the model, highlighting the importance of considering parameters not as singularities but in clusters.

Keywords: Carbon budget; CoupModel; Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation; Process-based model; Uncertainty estimate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380008000069
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:213:y:2008:i:3:p:331-344

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.001

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().