A survival-analysis-based simulation model for Russian wheat aphid population dynamics

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam) and Edward J. Bechinski

Ecological Modelling, 2008, vol. 216, issue 3, 323-332

Abstract: A simulation model for Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), populations is built by integrating survival-analysis-based development and survivor functions and the same-shape reproduction distribution model in the framework of Leslie [Leslie, P.H., 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33, 183–212] matrix structure. Survival analysis is utilized to model both the development and survival of RWA populations, and the Cox (1972) proportional hazards model is fitted with the data sets from our laboratory observation of 1800 RWA individuals under 25 factorial combinations of five temperature regimes and five barley plant-growth stages. Rather than using simple age-specific survivor rates as in the traditional Leslie matrix, the survivor functions based on survival analysis describe age-specific, temperature and plant stage-dependent RWA survival probabilities. Similarly, a probability model from survival analysis to estimate the probability that an individual will reach mature adult stage is utilized to describe the development process; this makes the transition from nymphal stage to mature adult stage dependent on RWA age as well as temperature and plant-growth stage.

Keywords: Simulation modeling; Proportional hazards model; Same-shape reproduction distribution; Failure time analysis; Population dynamics; Survival analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:216:y:2008:i:3:p:323-332

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.04.011

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