Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Damian Clancy, Jason E. Tanner, Stephen McWilliam and Matthew Spencer

Ecological Modelling, 2010, vol. 221, issue 10, 1337-1347

Abstract: Coral reefs are threatened ecosystems, so it is important to have predictive models of their dynamics. Most current models of coral reefs fall into two categories. The first is simple heuristic models which provide an abstract understanding of the possible behaviour of reefs in general, but do not describe real reefs. The second is complex simulations whose parameters are obtained from a range of sources such as literature estimates. We cannot estimate the parameters of these models from a single data set, and we have little idea of the uncertainty in their predictions.

Keywords: Coral reefs; Time series; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Bayesian statistics; Community dynamics; Parameter uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:10:p:1337-1347

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.02.001

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