 Uncertainty in future soil carbon trends at a central U.S. site under an ensemble of GCM scenario climatesZ. Pan, D. Andrade, M. Segal, J. Wimberley, N. McKinney and E. Takle Ecological Modelling, 2010, vol. 221, issue 5, 876-881 Abstract: This study uses DAYCENT model to investigate the sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) at an intensely cultivated site in the U.S. Midwest under an ensemble of scenario climates predicted by IPCC models. The model ensemble includes three IPCC models (Canadian, French, German), three emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and three time periods (late 20th, mid-21st, late 21st century). DAYCENT shows that SOC at the site would decline by 0.3–2.6kgm−2 (5–35%) depending on the models and scenarios from late 20th to mid-21st century despite a larger increase of future net primary production (NPP) than respiration. The future SOC decrease is mostly attributable to harvest loss. The wide spread in future SOC decline rates are in part because SOC decrease (by respiration) is directly proportional to SOC itself. Any uncertainty in absolute SOC in DAYCENT would translate directly into its trend, unlike other variables such as temperature whose trends are independent of their values themselves, contrasting the reliability of SOC trend with temperature change. Keywords: Soil carbon; Climate change; Net primary production; Soil respiration; Ecosystem (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:5:p:876-881 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.11.013 Access Statistics for this article Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier |
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