Spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage and its driving factors in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin, China

Jiakai Ma, Zixuan Hao, Yaqi Shen and Zhilei Zhen

Ecological Modelling, 2025, vol. 502, issue C

Abstract: The Yellow River Basin (YRB) holds plays a crucial role in China's socioeconomic development and ecological security, and it is also a key strategic area for achieving carbon reduction targets. This study focused on the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin (SYRB), utilizing the PLUS-InVEST model to assess changes in carbon storage (CS) from 2000 to 2020. Then, the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) models were employed to explore the impact of various driving factors on carbon storage changes. Finally, the study predicted land use/cover (LULC) changes by 2040 and the distribution characteristics of CS under different development scenarios. The results showed that the CS in the SYRB has been diminishing from 2000 to 2020, with a reduction of 4.08 × 106 t. The LULC changes had the most critical effect on CS, and then the elevation, annual precipitation, and net primary productivity also played an important impact on CS. Moreover, the interaction of LULC and other driving factors presented the strongest impact on CS. By 2040, the CS in the SYRB under the natural development, ecological protection, urban development, and comprehensive development scenarios were 16.68 × 108, 16.74 × 108, 16.63 × 108, and 16.69 × 108 t, respectively. Local Moran's I indicated that the High-High values of CS accumulation were predominantly found in the mountainous areas in 2040, while the Low-Low values of CS accumulation were mainly focused in the urban areas in the middle of the SYRB. This study emphasized the importance of human activities and the natural environment in achieving carbon neutrality, and that we should take ecological conservation measures to increase the level of regional CS.

Keywords: PLUS-InVEST model; Land use/cover; Carbon storage; Different development scenarios; The Yellow River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:502:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025000250

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111039

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