Integrated SSP-RCP Scenarios for Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Ecosystem Services in East Africa

Edovia Dufatanye Umwali, Xi Chen, Xuexi Ma, Zengkun Guo, Dickson Mbigi, Zhuo Zhang, Adeline Umugwaneza, Aboubakar Gasirabo and Jeanine Umuhoza

Ecological Modelling, 2025, vol. 504, issue C

Abstract: Ecosystem Services (ES) link natural ecosystems to human well-being and are crucial for sustainable development amid climate and land use challenges. This study presents a novel framework that integrates the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, with the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) derived from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. This approach, the first of its kind in East Africa (EA), examined projected changes in water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ) were assessed under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios for the 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s) compared to the historical period (2000-2020). The findings revealed regional variability in precipitation, with an increase of 0.2 in certain areas during the 2050s and a projected temperature rise of 0.7, with significant warming expected by 2090 under the SSP585. The FLUS model exhibited high accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 0.95 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.93. Projections indicate a substantial reduction in barren land (35.7%) and forestland (24.63%), alongside an increase in cropland (24.92%) and urban areas (106.71%) by 2090. All scenarios showed reductions in ESs, with WY decreasing up to 31.36% under SSP126 and CS projected to decline by 6.38% under SSP585 by 2050. Whereas HQ is expected to fall by 5.37% under SSP585 by 2090. These highlight the growing pressures of climate and land use change on ES, offering critical insights for reconciling environmental preservation with socioeconomic development in the region.

Keywords: Climate change; Ecosystem services; FLUS; Land use simulation; SSP-RCPs; InVEST (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:504:y:2025:i:c:s030438002500078x

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111092

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