Modeling and outlook analysis of gasoline supply and demand and sensitivity analysis of main economic and social drivers

Mohsen Salimi, Mohammad Ali Moradi and Majid Amidpour

Energy, 2022, vol. 256, issue C

Abstract: Because of the strategic importance of gasoline in Iran's political economy, any decision to reform its demand has been met with strong economic, social, and political reactions. Therefore, careful consideration of the demand prospect and supply balance can provide the basis for planning for less costly management. Drivers affecting the demand for gasoline are here the same as drivers affecting the demand for automobiles and their use, which include the basic drivers of economic growth, population growth, general inflation, and ultimately gasoline price increase. The effects of these four major drivers were assessed under the reference scenario to examine the possible effects on gasoline demand, GHG emissions, and ultimately the balance of supply and demand. The results show that with every 0.25% change in the country's population growth, the amount of gasoline demand in 2035 is expected to change by 1.45 billion liters per year. The results also show that for every 1% annual increase in gasoline prices between 2021 and 2030, gasoline and GHG emissions in 2035 are expected to fall by 0.547 billion liters per year and 1287 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalence, respectively.

Keywords: Gasoline supply and demand; Economic growth; GHG emissions; Gasoline price; General inflation; LEAP modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222015894
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:256:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222015894

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124686

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().