Enhancing hourly electricity forecasting using fuzzy cognitive maps with sample entropy

Shoujiang Li, Jianzhou Wang, Hui Zhang and Yong Liang

Energy, 2024, vol. 298, issue C

Abstract: Accurate electricity consumption forecasting is the crucial to ensure the stable operation of the power system and optimize the smart grid dispatch. However, existing methods may not effectively capture complex potential features and change patterns, and are susceptible to noise, leading to deficiencies such as suboptimal electricity consumption forecasting accuracy, poor stability, and weak generalization capabilities. To fill this gap, a high order fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) forecasting method based on sample entropy and minimax concave penalty (MCP) regularization is proposed. Firstly, two mode decomposition methods are innovatively fused by utilizing sample entropy to extract the complex features of electricity consumption data, then a high order FCM model with powerful system state prediction capability and interpretable knowledge representation is constructed, and finally a FCM learning method based on MCP regularization is proposed. The forecasting method has the merits of low forecasting error, high stability and strong generalization capabilities. Comprehensive experimental results on multiple electricity consumption datasets show that the proposed method achieves optimal performance compared to 10 state-of-the-art baseline methods, demonstrating effectiveness in the task of electricity consumption forecasting, which contributes to more efficient energy management and cost savings, and provides a reliable tool for smart grid planning and management.

Keywords: Electricity consumption forecasting; Time series forecasting; Fuzzy cognitive maps; MCP regularization; Sample entropy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:298:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224012027

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131429

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