Does carbon news influence carbon prices?–Taking China's carbon market as an example

Tao Sun and Heng-Guo Zhang

Energy, 2025, vol. 333, issue C

Abstract: This paper extends the dynamic microstructure model of Ibrahim and Kalaitzoglou (2016) to study the news-driven price discovery in a single market. Based on this, we further expand the microstructure model of Hasbrouck (1995) to study a news-driven cointegration model between two markets. To analyze the impulse response of news among multiple markets, we further extend the spatial vector autoregressive model of Beenstock and Felsenstein (2007) to estimate the volatility spillover caused by news. The experimental results indicate that when homogenous or closely connected assets are traded in multiple markets, different transaction prices can be seen as sharing the same news-driven components, and there may be a cointegration relationship. In China's pilot carbon emission market phase, carbon news can increase the market transaction price and trading volume. In other stages, carbon news increases the transaction price but reduces the trading volume.

Keywords: News driven; Microstructure pricing model; Cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D82 L11 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:333:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225029810

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.137339

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