The role of behavior on variation in domestic space heating demand in similar dwellings: What does it mean for the payback period of re-insulation?

Wen Liu, Robert Harmsen, Tianrun Yang and Gert Jan Kramer

Energy, 2025, vol. 335, issue C

Abstract: Reducing domestic space heating demand is vital for meeting climate targets. Despite mature technologies and subsidies, re-insulation of the existing housing stock remains slow. This research quantifies the impact of occupant behavior on space heating demand and its economic implications for re-insulation. Using the Trnsys model, the heat demand of the case apartment was calculated and verified using monitoring data. The behavior was simulated for a well- and poorly-insulated apartment, and the payback time (PBT) for energy efficiency investments was assessed under different behavioral scenarios. Results reveal that occupant behavior can cause heat demand variation differing a factor 4.8 between high- and low-impact behavioral scenarios for a fixed building type, size, and insulation level. Key factors include partial heating practices and preferred indoor temperatures. Adjusting indoor temperatures during holidays and work hours has a larger impact on poorly insulated apartments. PBT variations for upgrading from label B to A range between 12 and 56 years, with the longer PBT observed for more energy-conscious behavior. In poorly insulated apartments, PBT varies between 6 and 29 years for upgrades from F to B and 11–56 years for F to D. This study highlights two key policy implications: 1) Accounting for occupant behavior is essential to avoid overestimating the energy savings and financial benefits of re-insulation. 2) While re-insulation may be profitable for average households, it may not be for those with below-average heating demand. Alongside market failures, this behavioral variation helps explain the slow adoption of re-insulation measures.

Keywords: Variation in space heating demand; Occupant behavior; Trnsys; re-insulation; Payback time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225036552
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:335:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225036552

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138013

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().