Hawkes process-based technology impact analysis

Hyun Jin Jang, Han-Gyun Woo and Changyong Lee

Journal of Informetrics, 2017, vol. 11, issue 2, 511-529

Abstract: Patent citation analysis is considered a useful tool for technology impact analysis. However, the outcomes of previous methods do not provide a fair reflection of a technology’s future prospects since they are based on deterministic approaches, assuming that future trends will remain the same as those in the past. As a remedy, we propose a Hawkes process-based patent citation analysis method to assess the future technological impact and uncertainty of a technology in a time period of interest by employing the future citation counts of the relevant patents as a quantitative proxy. For this, we construct a citation interval matrix from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) database, and employ a Hawkes process − a special case of path-dependent stochastic processes − as a method for patent citation forecasting. Specifically, the Hawkes process models the idiosyncratic and dynamic behaviours of a technology’s evolution and obsolescence by increasing the likelihood of another subsequent citation by oneself (i.e., self-excitation) and decaying the likelihood back towards the initial level naturally. A case study of the patents about molecular amplification diagnosis technology shows that our method outperforms previous deterministic approaches in terms of accuracy and practicality.

Keywords: Technology impact analysis; Hawkes processes; Future technological impact and uncertainty; Technology evolution and obsolescence; Patent citation forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:infome:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:511-529

DOI: 10.1016/j.joi.2017.03.007

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