Practice makes perfect: Learning effects with household point and density forecasts of inflation

James Mitchell, Taylor Shiroff and Hana Braitsch

International Journal of Forecasting, 2026, vol. 42, issue 2, 315-329

Abstract: This paper shows how both the characteristics and the accuracy of the point and density forecasts from a well-known panel data survey of households’ inflationary expectations – the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations – depend on the tenure of survey respondents. Households’ point and density forecasts of inflation become significantly more accurate with repeated practice of completing the survey. These learning gains are best identified when tenure-based combined density forecasts are constructed. Tenured households produce more accurate density forecasts, although on average they remain underconfident in their own forecasting performance.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Surveys; Forecaster heterogeneity; Combination forecasts; Density forecasting; Learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Working Paper: Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:42:y:2026:i:2:p:315-329

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.06.002

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