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Details about James Mitchell

Homepage:https://sites.google.com/view/jamesmitchell
Workplace:Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by James Mitchell.

Last updated 2024-03-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pmi127


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Working Papers

2024

  1. The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers' Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads

2023

  1. Bayesian Modeling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    Also in Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics (2023) Downloads
  2. Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
  3. Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Deep Neural Network Estimation in Panel Data Models
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
    Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2023) Downloads
  5. Incorporating Short Data into Large Mixed-Frequency VARs for Regional Nowcasting
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics (2023) Downloads View citations (1)
  6. Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
    Also in Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2023) Downloads
    Papers, arXiv.org (2023) Downloads
  7. The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
  8. The FOMC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads

2022

  1. Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
    See also Journal Article Censored density forecasts: Production and evaluation, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2023) Downloads (2023)
  2. Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) (2021) Downloads View citations (1)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021) Downloads

    See also Journal Article Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2024) Downloads (2024)
  3. Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) (2020) Downloads View citations (3)
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group (2020) Downloads View citations (3)
  4. Using hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates
    Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Downloads View citations (2)
  5. Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2024) Downloads (2024)

2021

  1. Nowcasting 'true' monthly US GDP during the pandemic
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article NOWCASTING ‘TRUE’ MONTHLY U.S. GDP DURING THE PANDEMIC, National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2021) Downloads View citations (2) (2021)

2020

  1. Does Judgment Improve Macroeconomic Density Forecasts?
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads
    See also Journal Article Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2021) Downloads View citations (10) (2021)
  2. Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads
    See also Journal Article Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2023) Downloads (2023)

2019

  1. Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) (2019) Downloads View citations (5)
  2. Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers, and science
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads View citations (18)
  3. Forecasting with Unknown Unknowns: Censoring and Fat Tails on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads View citations (10)
  4. Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth
    Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Downloads View citations (6)
    Also in EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group (2019) Downloads View citations (5)
  5. Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads View citations (4)
    Also in Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) (2018) Downloads View citations (9)

2018

  1. R2 bounds for predictive models: what univariate properties tell us about multivariate predictability
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article R2 Bounds for Predictive Models: What Univariate Properties Tell us About Multivariate Predictability, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2019) Downloads View citations (3) (2019)
  2. The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics
    Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute Downloads View citations (15)
  3. UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model
    Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Downloads View citations (4)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics (2018) Downloads View citations (4)

2016

  1. What univariate models tell us about multivariate macroeconomic models
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads

2014

  1. Generalised Density Forecast Combinations
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Downloads View citations (10)
    Also in Bank of England working papers, Bank of England (2014) Downloads View citations (4)
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group (2013) Downloads View citations (4)

    See also Journal Article Generalised density forecast combinations, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2015) Downloads View citations (48) (2015)
  2. Probability Forecasting for Inflation Warnings from the Federal Reserve
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads View citations (3)

2013

  1. A Nonlinear Panel Data Model of Cross-Sectional Dependence
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads View citations (6)
    Also in National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2010)
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester (2012) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article A nonlinear panel data model of cross-sectional dependence, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2014) Downloads View citations (16) (2014)
  2. Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads
    Also in CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2011) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2014) Downloads View citations (22) (2014)
  3. The Recalibrated and Copula Opinion Pools
    EMF Research Papers, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group Downloads View citations (2)

2011

  1. Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester Downloads
    See also Journal Article EFFICIENT AGGREGATION OF PANEL QUALITATIVE SURVEY DATA, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2013) View citations (3) (2013)
  2. Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Downloads
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2011) Downloads View citations (4)

    See also Journal Article Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain, Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier (2012) Downloads View citations (9) (2012)
  3. Mortality in the British Panel Household Survey: a Test of a Standard Treatment for Non-Response
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research Downloads

2010

  1. A Nonlinear Panel Model of Cross-sectional Dependence
    Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance Downloads
  2. Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2009) View citations (9)
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics (2009) Downloads View citations (12)
    Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (2009) Downloads View citations (10)
  3. Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics (2009) Downloads View citations (4)

    See also Journal Article Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier (2011) Downloads View citations (22) (2011)

2009

  1. Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities
    Working Paper, Norges Bank Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2011) Downloads View citations (30) (2011)
  2. Macro Modelling with Many Models
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research View citations (12)
    Also in Working Paper, Norges Bank (2009) Downloads View citations (14)
  3. Monthly and Quarterly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2009) Downloads View citations (1)
  4. The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research Downloads
    See also Journal Article The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2011) Downloads View citations (27) (2011)

2008

  1. Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities
    Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Downloads View citations (13)
    Also in Working Paper, Norges Bank (2008) Downloads View citations (60)

    See also Journal Article Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2010) Downloads View citations (139) (2010)
  2. Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society (2011) View citations (30) (2011)

2007

  1. Nowcasting and predicting data revisions in real time using qualitative panel survey data
    Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Qualitative Expectational Data as Predictors of Income and Consumption Growth: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research
  3. The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research View citations (9)
    Also in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2007) Downloads View citations (10)

2005

  1. Insights into Business Confidence from Firm-Level Panel Data
    Working Papers in Economics, University of Waikato Downloads
  2. Poverty and Debt
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research View citations (1)
  3. Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro area
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research
    See also Journal Article Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: Evidence from qualitative survey data, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2007) Downloads View citations (18) (2007)

2004

  1. Optimal combination of density forecasts
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research View citations (5)
  2. Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?
    Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003, Money Macro and Finance Research Group Downloads View citations (57)
    Also in ZEI Working Papers, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies (2003) Downloads View citations (25)

2001

  1. Quantification of qualitative firm-level survey data
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2002) View citations (29) (2002)

Journal Articles

2024

  1. Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2024, 56, (1), 81-114 Downloads
    See also Working Paper Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP, Working Papers (2022) Downloads View citations (1) (2022)
  2. Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions
    Economic Commentary, 2024, 2024, (08), 8 Downloads
  3. Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2024, 40, (2), 626-640 Downloads
    See also Working Paper Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates, Working Papers (2022) Downloads View citations (1) (2022)

2023

  1. Censored density forecasts: Production and evaluation
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023, 38, (5), 714-734 Downloads
    See also Working Paper Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation, Working Papers (2022) Downloads (2022)
  2. Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 85, (3), 457-481 Downloads
    See also Working Paper Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty, EMF Research Papers (2020) Downloads (2020)
  3. Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the United States
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2023, 41, (2), 563-577 Downloads View citations (1)

2022

  1. A New Measure of Consumers’ (In)Attention to Inflation
    Economic Commentary, 2022, 2022, (14), 7 Downloads

2021

  1. Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2021, 37, (3), 1247-1260 Downloads View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Does Judgment Improve Macroeconomic Density Forecasts?, EMF Research Papers (2020) Downloads (2020)
  2. Measuring and Communicating the Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics
    Journal of Official Statistics, 2021, 37, (2), 289-316 Downloads
    Also in Journal of Official Statistics, 2021, 37, (2), 289-316 (2021) Downloads
  3. NOWCASTING ‘TRUE’ MONTHLY U.S. GDP DURING THE PANDEMIC
    National Institute Economic Review, 2021, 256, 44-70 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Nowcasting 'true' monthly US GDP during the pandemic, CAMA Working Papers (2021) Downloads View citations (2) (2021)

2020

  1. RECONCILED ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT IN THE UK
    National Institute Economic Review, 2020, 253, R44-R59 Downloads View citations (12)
  2. Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35, (2), 176-197 Downloads View citations (39)
  3. UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2020, 183, (1), 91-119 Downloads View citations (13)

2019

  1. R2 Bounds for Predictive Models: What Univariate Properties Tell us About Multivariate Predictability
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2019, 37, (4), 681-695 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper R2 bounds for predictive models: what univariate properties tell us about multivariate predictability, Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance (2018) Downloads View citations (4) (2018)

2015

  1. Generalised density forecast combinations
    Journal of Econometrics, 2015, 188, (1), 150-165 Downloads View citations (48)
    See also Working Paper Generalised Density Forecast Combinations, CAMA Working Papers (2014) Downloads View citations (10) (2014)

2014

  1. A nonlinear panel data model of cross-sectional dependence
    Journal of Econometrics, 2014, 179, (2), 134-157 Downloads View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper A Nonlinear Panel Data Model of Cross-Sectional Dependence, EMF Research Papers (2013) Downloads View citations (6) (2013)
  2. Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2014, 76, (2), 233-256 Downloads View citations (19)
  3. Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (2), 268-279 Downloads View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty, EMF Research Papers (2013) Downloads (2013)

2013

  1. EFFICIENT AGGREGATION OF PANEL QUALITATIVE SURVEY DATA
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2013, 28, (4), 580-603 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data, Discussion Papers in Economics (2011) Downloads (2011)

2012

  1. Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain
    Explorations in Economic History, 2012, 49, (4), 543-556 Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics (2011) Downloads (2011)

2011

  1. Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35, (10), 1659-1670 Downloads View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities, Working Paper (2009) Downloads View citations (12) (2009)
  2. Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26, (6), 1023-1040 View citations (92)
  3. Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2011, 174, (2), 327-348 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers (2008) Downloads View citations (3) (2008)
  4. Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, 22, (1), 77-87 Downloads View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves, CAMA Working Papers (2010) Downloads View citations (5) (2010)
  5. The drivers of international migration to the UK: A panel‐based Bayesian model averaging approach
    Economic Journal, 2011, 121, (557), 1398-1444 Downloads View citations (12)
  6. The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, (4), 1128-1146 Downloads View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers (2009) Downloads (2009)

2010

  1. Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (4), 621-634 Downloads View citations (139)
    See also Working Paper Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series (2008) Downloads View citations (13) (2008)
  2. Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data
    Journal of Forecasting, 2010, 29, (3), 313-330 Downloads View citations (9)

2009

  1. ARCHITECTS AS NOWCASTERS OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION
    National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, (1), 111-122 Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, 111-122 (2009) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. CONFIDENCE AND LEADING INDICATORS: INTRODUCTION
    National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, (1), 61-62 Downloads
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, 61-62 (2009) Downloads
  3. WHERE ARE WE NOW? THE UK RECESSION AND NOWCASTING GDP GROWTH USING STATISTICAL MODELS
    National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 209, (1), 60-69 Downloads View citations (17)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 209, 60-69 (2009) Downloads View citations (1)

2008

  1. Incidence‐based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life‐tables
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2008, 171, (1), 203-222 Downloads View citations (6)
  2. Introduction: Recent Developments in Economic Forecasting
    National Institute Economic Review, 2008, 203, (1), 57-58 Downloads

2007

  1. Combining density forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (1), 1-13 Downloads View citations (223)
  2. Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: Evidence from qualitative survey data
    Economics Letters, 2007, 94, (2), 245-252 Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers (2005) (2005)

2006

  1. Prudence and UK Trend Growth
    National Institute Economic Review, 2006, 197, 58-64 Downloads
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2006, 197, (1), 58-64 (2006) Downloads

2005

  1. An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth
    Economic Journal, 2005, 115, (501), F108-F129 View citations (85)
  2. Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR ‘Fan’ Charts of Inflation*
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 67, (s1), 995-1033 Downloads View citations (178)
  3. FORECASTING MANUFACTURING OUTPUT GROWTH USING FIRM‐LEVEL SURVEY DATA
    Manchester School, 2005, 73, (4), 479-499 Downloads View citations (26)
  4. Reconsidering the Evidence: Are Euro Area Business Cycles Converging?
    Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2005, 2004, (3), 275-307 Downloads View citations (24)
  5. The National Institute Density Forecasts of Inflation
    National Institute Economic Review, 2005, 193, (1), 60-69 Downloads View citations (4)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2005, 193, 60-69 (2005) Downloads

2003

  1. Business Cycles and Turning Points: A Survey of Statistical Techniques
    National Institute Economic Review, 2003, 183, (1), 90-106 Downloads View citations (17)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2003, 183, 90-106 (2003) Downloads

2002

  1. Have UK and Eurozone Business Cycles Become More Correlated?
    National Institute Economic Review, 2002, 182, (1), 58-71 Downloads View citations (12)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2002, 182, 58-71 (2002) Downloads
  2. Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data
    Economic Journal, 2002, 112, (478), C117-C135 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper Quantification of qualitative firm-level survey data, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers (2001) Downloads View citations (1) (2001)
  3. The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations
    Economics Letters, 2002, 76, (1), 101-107 Downloads View citations (27)

Chapters

2022

  1. Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth Using Bayesian Quantile Regression
    A chapter in Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, 2022, vol. 43A, pp 51-72 Downloads View citations (1)

2009

  1. Recent Developments in Density Forecasting
    Palgrave Macmillan View citations (11)
 
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