Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

Ana Beatriz Galvão and James Mitchell

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2024, vol. 56, issue 1, 81-114

Abstract: Economic statistics are commonly published without estimates of their uncertainty. We conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment to assess if and how the UK public understands data uncertainty. A control group observes only the point estimate of GDP. Treatment groups are presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that GDP numbers are uncertain. Quantitative communications of data uncertainty help align the public's subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty with objective estimates, but do not decrease trust in the statistical office.

Date: 2024
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https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13044

Related works:
Working Paper: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP (2022)
Working Paper: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP (2021)
Working Paper: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:56:y:2024:i:1:p:81-114

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