Exploring the mobility-crime dynamics across various stages of a Global Health crisis: Temporal evidence from 25 cities in the United States

Xinge Jia and Hua Zhong

Journal of Criminal Justice, 2026, vol. 102, issue C

Abstract: Contemporary global crises have intensified the conditions of a risk society. In response to perceived risks, human mobility, which refers to physical movement across locations such as stores and schools, has changed. Routine Activity Theory (RAT) posits that such mobility changes can influence crime by affecting the interactions among potential offenders, suitable targets, and capable guardianship. Until now, limited research has examined the long-term mobility-crime dynamics. This study addresses this gap by investigating the temporal associations between mobility patterns across six location types and eight common offense types in 25 major U.S. cities in a risk society exemplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Descriptive analyses reveal divergent crime trajectories: persistent declines in drug offenses, residential burglary, and robbery, while a sustained rise in motor vehicle theft. Using Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality tests, we find the strongest associations between mobility and crime in the initial stage, with varying relationships across locations and crime types. Mobility shows a greater influence on violent crime than the reverse, whereas bidirectional associations are more common in property crimes. These findings underscore the global health crisis's lasting effects on mobility-crime dynamics and provide insights for targeted crime prevention and effective urban planning strategies in a risk-oriented society.

Keywords: Risk society; Routine activity theory; Human mobility; Crime; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047235225002028
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:102:y:2026:i:c:s0047235225002028

DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2025.102553

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Criminal Justice is currently edited by Matthew DeLisi

More articles in Journal of Criminal Justice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().