Group-individual probability confusion: Implications for suspect prioritization in criminal investigations

D. Kim Rossmo and Angela M. Jones

Journal of Criminal Justice, 2025, vol. 99, issue C

Abstract: Suspect prioritization is a critical function in criminal investigations suffering from information overload. As this effort involves probability ranking, it is important to avoid confusing group and individual selection probabilities, an ecological fallacy related to Kahneman and Tversky's hit-and-run taxicab color exercise.

Keywords: Probability; Bayes theorem; Cognitive bias; Kahneman and Tversky taxicab problem; Criminal investigations; Suspect prioritization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s0047235225001011

DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2025.102452

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