Multi-phase epidemic model by a Markov chain

Stefania Maria Buccellato and Elisabetta Tornatore

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2008, vol. 387, issue 14, 3555-3562

Abstract: In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for fade-out or extinction of the infection.

Keywords: Epidemic models; Markov chain; Numerical simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:14:p:3555-3562

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.115

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