Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio: Using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH–EVT-Copula model

Zong-Run Wang, Xiao-Hong Chen, Yan-Bo Jin and Yan-Ju Zhou

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2010, vol. 389, issue 21, 4918-4928

Abstract: This paper introduces GARCH–EVT-Copula model and applies it to study the risk of foreign exchange portfolio. Multivariate Copulas, including Gaussian, t and Clayton ones, were used to describe a portfolio risk structure, and to extend the analysis from a bivariate to an n-dimensional asset allocation problem. We apply this methodology to study the returns of a portfolio of four major foreign currencies in China, including USD, EUR, JPY and HKD. Our results suggest that the optimal investment allocations are similar across different Copulas and confidence levels. In addition, we find that the optimal investment concentrates on the USD investment. Generally speaking, t Copula and Clayton Copula better portray the correlation structure of multiple assets than Normal Copula.

Keywords: GARCH–EVT-Copula model; Exchange rate; Portfolio risk; VaR and CVaR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437110006394
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:21:p:4918-4928

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.07.012

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().