Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study

Yiting Zhang, Gladys Hui Ting Lee, Jian Cheng Wong, Jun Liang Kok, Manamohan Prusty and Siew Ann Cheong

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2011, vol. 390, issue 11, 2020-2050

Abstract: We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002–2003, 2004–2005, 2008–2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil & gas, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct, statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like, associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a star-like MST in Sep 2009, and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that the US economy is on track to a recovery.

Keywords: US economic sectors; Macroeconomic cycle; Financial crisis; Economic recovery; Financial time series; Segmentation; Clustering; Cross correlations; Minimal spanning tree; Planar maximally filtered graph (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437111000847
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:11:p:2020-2050

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.01.020

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().