The impact of authorities’ media and rumor dissemination on the evolution of emergency

Laijun Zhao, Qin Wang, Jingjing Cheng, Ding Zhang, Ting Ma, Yucheng Chen and Jiajia Wang

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2012, vol. 391, issue 15, 3978-3987

Abstract: Rumor dissemination will induce emergencies. Authorities’ information is an essential factor for avoiding rumor dissemination when emergencies occur. The credibility of authorities’ media and audience rating of authorities’ information greatly influence the evolution of emergencies which are induced by rumor dissemination. To explore the interplay mechanism among authorities’ media, rumor dissemination and the evolution of emergency, we propose a new interplay model and perform stability analysis by the Routh stability criterion. We find a stability condition under which the deterioration of emergency can be effectively prevented. Recommendations for policy makers and consulting advice for related commissions are explored in the case study of the iodized sail shortage panic in China. Results show that applying media with high audience rating but low credibility will cause widespread panic and inspire a slew of ancillary rumors. Authorities should choose proper media to release the truth to public according to the seriousness of the situation and the rumor spreading rate. Pertinent countermeasures and appropriate tactics are also brought out for decision makers to alleviate intense feelings of panic.

Keywords: Emergency state; Rumor dissemination; Audience rating of authorities’ media; Routh stability criterion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:15:p:3978-3987

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2012.02.004

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