Probabilistic power flow analysis with correlated wind speeds

Shaowu Zhou, Qing Xiao and Lianghong Wu

Renewable Energy, 2020, vol. 145, issue C, 2169-2177

Abstract: In this paper, a polynomial transformation model is proposed to fit the quantile function of wind speed, a Laplace copula is developed to model the dependence structure of wind speeds at multiple sites, whereby the probabilistic power flow (PPF) problem can be mapped to the independent standard normal space. Based on a D−dimensional cubature rule and Kronecker product, a new multivariate quadrature rule is developed to calculate statistical moments of power flow solutions. Finally, the performance of the polynomial model and Laplace copula is checked using historical wind speed data, a case study is conducted on a modified IEEE 118-bus system to compare the proposed quadrature rule with the point estimate method for PPF computation.

Keywords: Probabilistic power flow; Polynomial transformation model; Laplace copula; Cubature rule; Kronecker product (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:145:y:2020:i:c:p:2169-2177

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.07.153

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