Power demand forecasting for demand-driven energy production with biogas plants

Celina Dittmer, Johannes Krümpel and Andreas Lemmer

Renewable Energy, 2021, vol. 163, issue C, 1871-1877

Abstract: For the future energy system it becomes increasingly important that biogas plants produce electricity in a demand-oriented way to compensate electricity production from fluctuating sources like wind power and photovoltaics. Flexibilisation concepts provide a coordinated feeding management, which consider different gas production kinetics of used substrates to adjust the biogas production. To enable the generation of a prospective timetable, suitable forecast models for power demand were evaluated. The resulting 48-h forecasts of power demand of a “real-world laboratory” demonstrated that the four selected models achieve comparably good results with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between 13 and 16%. Further evaluation showed that forecasts over longer periods of up to 14 days are advantageous as they are possible without compromising forecast quality.

Keywords: Time series analysis; Prediction; Feeding management; Demand-orientated biogas; ARIMA; TBATS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:163:y:2021:i:c:p:1871-1877

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.10.099

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