Antifragility or threat-rigidity: the impact of board environmental policy uncertainty perception on corporate exploratory and exploitative green technological innovation

Kunliang Xu, Yanmin Shao and Yiwen Hu

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2025, vol. 216, issue C

Abstract: Drawing on cognition and upper echelons theories, this study examines how board environmental policy uncertainty (EPU) perception affects corporate green technological innovation (GTI), including exploratory and exploitative GTI. We theorize that an increased board EPU perception will cause both antifragility and threat-rigidity effects on GTI. The antifragility motivates firms to leverage GTI to counteract perceived EPU, while the threat-rigidity drives them to avoid GTI in unfamiliar fields. Consequently, an enhanced board EPU perception exerts a positive influence on exploitative GTI, yet not on exploratory GTI. Furthermore, we posit that board environmental protection background weakens the relationship between EPU perception and exploitative GTI by amplifying the threat-rigidity effect. Conversely, board R&D and political connection backgrounds strengthen this relationship by amplifying the antifragility effect. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms during 2012–2021, this study measures board EPU perception through textual analysis of board reports, and draws evidence in support of the arguments. Economically, an increase in the board EPU perception from the 25th to the 75th percentile is associated with a 15.50 % increase in exploitative GTI relative to its mean. The findings may provide insights for shareholders and regulators to govern corporate GTI in a volatile environmental policy environment.

Keywords: Environmental policy uncertainty perception; Green technological innovation; Cognition structure; Antifragility; Threat-rigidity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:216:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525001763

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124145

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