Construction cost estimation: A parametric approach for better estimates of expected cost and variation

Omar Swei, Jeremy Gregory and Randolph Kirchain

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2017, vol. 101, issue C, 295-305

Abstract: As project planners continue to move towards frameworks such as probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis to evaluate competing transportation investments, there is a need to enhance the current cost-estimation approaches that underlie these models to enable improved project selection. This paper presents an approach for cost estimation that combines a maximum likelihood estimator for data transformations with least angle regression for dimensionality reduction. The authors apply the proposed method for 15 different pavement bid items across five states in the United States. The results from the study demonstrate that the proposed approach frequently leads to consistent parametric estimates that address the structural bias and heteroscedasticity that plague the current cost-estimation procedures. Both of these aspects are particularly important for large-scale construction projects, where traditional methods tend to systematically underestimate expected construction costs and overestimate the associated variance.

Keywords: Cost estimation; Cost overruns; Heteroscedasticity; Least angle regression; Parametric estimation; Roadways (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S019126151630340X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transb:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:295-305

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2017.04.013

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological is currently edited by Fred Mannering

More articles in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().