An analytical method for aircraft collision risk estimation

Stephen L. M. Hockaday and Alypios Chatziioanou

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1986, vol. 20, issue 5, 415-428

Abstract: Transportation system safety is difficult to assess, particularly when examining future systems that are unlike existing systems. The absence of consensus concerning safety metrics and associated mathematical techniques inhibits implementation of improvements. One method for assessing safety was recently applied to assess new air traffic control procedures. The method contains several steps, including use of a collision risk model. The model uses probability theory to assess collision risk between aircraft due to random deviations from course. Techniques that recognize human monitoring and intervention to avoid collisions must be combined with the model to obtain absolute values of risk. Examples of model application are presented, together with a discussion of model limitations and use.

Date: 1986
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