The Green Transition and Households' Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment

Tjantana Barro, Michal Marencak and Giang Nghiem

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: We provide novel causal evidence that macroeconomic narrative framing, whether a policy is described as a supply or demand shock, significantly shapes household beliefs. In a randomized survey experiment conducted within the Bundesbank household panel, participants received identical information about a climate policy that was framed differently across treatments. While both the supply and demand narratives lower growth expectations, we find that the supply framing increases inflation expectations, whereas the demand framing does not reduce them. This highlights that how structural policies are communicated, not just what is communicated, critically influences expectation formation. Our findings offer new insights for central bank and government communication strategies during economic transitions like the green transition or AI adoption.

Keywords: climate change; expectations; survey experiments; RCT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 D84 E31 E52 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-mac
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https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/20 ... _Marencak_Nghiem.pdf

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-69

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