Monitoring Macroeconomic Prospects with a Meta VAR-E Dashboard

Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: The time series properties of output and price inflation can be accurately captured using VAR-E's, Vector-Autoregressive models of actual and expected measures of the series where the latter are provided by surveys. The paper proposes a method for estimating VAR-E's that accommodate individuals' real-time understanding of the macroeconomy and which deliver forecasts in a way that is useful to decision-makers. It notes the sort of statistics and figures that might be reported in a 'dashboard' to monitor the health of the macroeconomy, and this is illustrated using the actual and expected data produced by the Bank of England's Decision-Maker Panel.

Keywords: learning; expectations; surveys; forecasts; decision-making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D84 E31 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2026-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets
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https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2026-02/10_2026_Lee_Shields.pdf (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-10

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