Do well managed firms make better forecasts?

Nicholas Bloom, Taka Kawakubo, Charlotte Meng, Paul Mizen, Rebecca Riley, Tatsuro Senga and John Van Reenen

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: We link new forecast and management data on over 20,000 firms to data on productivity in manufacturing and services. The panel survey was administered in the UK in July 2017 and November 2020, coinciding with two periods of considerable uncertainty from Brexit and Covid. We find that better-managed firms make more accurate forecasts for firm-level turnover and macro-level GDP. Uniquely, we show better-managed firms are also aware that they make more accurate forecasts and have greater confidence in their predictions. This highlights how superior forecasting ability enables well-managed firms to make improved operational and strategic choices.

Keywords: management; productivity; expectations; uncertainty; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L20 M20 O32 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-18
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Published in Review of Economics and Statistics, 18, December, 2025. ISSN: 0034-6535

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