Tools of the trade: AI and the restructuring of the experience premium

Eric Shaunn Mattingly, Steven J. Hyde and Andrew S. Manikas

International Journal of Manpower, 2026, 1-18

Abstract: PurposeWe examine how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes the relative economic positioning of entry-level and experienced workers within industries. Rather than focusing on job elimination, we investigate whether AI changes the returns to experience.Design/methodology/approachWe construct an industry-quarter panel from 337 million US Lightcast job postings across 16 NAICS2 industries, with finer-grained inference and decomposition across 86 NAICS3 industries (Q1 2017 to Q1 2026). Difference-in-differences models use a leave-own-industry-out shift-share measure, with industry and quarter fixed effects and small-cluster-robust inference. Lightcast AI-skills rate and Felten task-exposure provide comparisons, with Census firm-reported AI adoption and BLS occupational data providing triangulation.FindingsEntry-level posting shares decline modestly but not differentially with AI-exposure. By contrast, the experienced-entry pay gap widens with greater shift-share AI exposure; a one-percentage-point increase in exposure predicts a significant $2,780 widening. Occupational reallocation toward higher-paid jobs accounts for 61% of the widening, and stronger within-occupation wage growth concentrated among experienced workers accounts for 39%.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings suggest AI and labour-market research should distinguish potential task exposure from realized adoption and examine how occupational restructuring alters within-industry career stage inequality.Originality/valueWe shift attention from displacement to experience repricing, introducing career-stage-biased technical change as a two-channel account in which AI may alter both occupational demand and the rewards to experience-mediated capabilities.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Entry-level employment; Experience premium; Skill-biased technical change; Job postings; Difference-in-differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/ijm/article/doi/10.1108/IJ ... restructuring-of-the (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/ijm/article-pdf/doi/10.110 ... m-04-2026-0378en.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijmpps:ijm-04-2026-0378

DOI: 10.1108/IJM-04-2026-0378

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Manpower is currently edited by Professor Adrian Ziderman

More articles in International Journal of Manpower from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().