Extreme Connectedness among Energy Transition Metals and Commodity Markets

Andrea Bastianin, Chiara Casoli, Evžen Kočenda and Xiao Li
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Andrea Bastianin: Department of Economics, Management, and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Chiara Casoli: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and InsIDE Lab, Department of Economics, University of Insubria
Xiao Li: Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia

No 2026.13, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: The global energy transition is reshaping commodity demand, yet its implications for commodity risk transmission remain unclear. We analyze connectedness among Energy Transition Metals (ETMs) – a subset of metals that are key inputs in clean energy technologies – energy commodities, and industrial metals using a Quantile Factor VAR framework. We document strong state dependence: spillovers are substantially larger in the tails of the return distribution than at the median. While crude oil remains influential, its dominance weakens post-Covid as ETMs, particularly base ETMs, gain centrality. A complementary event-study shows ETM-related policy announcements amplify spillovers in extreme regimes, indicating structural reconfiguration and systemic implications.

Keywords: Raw materials; Energy transition; Quantile Connectedness; Spillover effects; Commodity Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C58 Q02 Q41 Q43 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-min
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Working Paper: Extreme Connectedness among Energy Transition Metals and Commodity Markets (2026)
Working Paper: Extreme Connectedness among Energy Transition Metals and Commodity Markets (2026)
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