The Evolution of U.S. Educational Mobility over the 20th Century and the Role of Public Education

Martha Bailey (), Paul Mohnen () and A.R. Shariq Mohammed ()

No 2026-1, FRB Atlanta Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Abstract: We construct two new large-scale datasets to measure relative and upward educational mobility by sex, race, class, and childhood county of residence for cohorts born in 1910–1919 and 1982–1997. We show that both relative and upward educational mobility rose over the 20th century, with historically disadvantaged groups experiencing the largest gains. We also document substantial geographic convergence over the 20th century: both within and across regions, where children live matters much less for their educational mobility today than it did at midcentury. Using a state-border design, we show that greater public investments in primary and secondary education were an important driver of upward educational mobility in the early and late 20th century, but public investments in postsecondary education emerged as a similarly important determinant in the late 20th century.

Keywords: education; inequality; intergenerational mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I24 I28 J62 N32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 81
Date: 2026-01-12
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Published in 2026

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DOI: 10.29338/wp2026-01

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