The Anatomy of Polarization: Evidence from Worker Flows

Fabio Cerina (), Elisa Dienesch (), Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Alessio Moro ()
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Fabio Cerina: http://dipartimenti.unica.it/scienzeeconomicheedaziendali/
Alessio Moro: https://web.unica.it/unica/page/it/alessio_moro

No 2026-7, FRB Atlanta Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Abstract: Using longitudinal French administrative data (1984–2021), we document that employment polarization after 1994 reflects major changes in labor-market entry rather than mass occupational downgrading or displacement of incumbents. Flows from routine to abstract occupations remain substantial throughout the period, and a large fraction of these upgrades is due to noncollege workers. The decisive shift that generates polarization occurs at the entry margin: the net flow from nonemployment into routine occupations reverses around 1994, while the net flow from nonemployment into manual work increases. These patterns motivate life-cycle models of occupational choice that explicitly incorporate cohort heterogeneity and separate entry and re-entry margins.

Keywords: labor market polarization; worker flows; occupational mobility; routine-based technological change; longitudinal data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J21 J24 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 58
Date: 2026-06-22
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DOI: 10.29338/wp2026-07

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