Forecasting turning points with leading indicators

Gerald H. Anderson and John J. Erceg

Economic Commentary, 1989, issue Oct

Abstract: An examination of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and its record as a forecasting tool. The authors conclude that while the index can provide useful information about business peaks and troughs, its value is limited by a tendency to give false signals, and its worth greatly increases when used in combination with other indexes.

Keywords: Economic indicators; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1989
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