Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?

David Kelley

Chicago Fed Letter, 2019, No 425

Abstract: In this article, I analyze a broad range of leading indicators?economic or financial data series that change in advance of the rest of the economy?to see which ones have done better at signaling past U.S. recessions.1 I also use these leading indicators to form a new index that outperforms existing leading indexes and the Treasury yield curve at signaling historical downturns.

Keywords: Economic indicators; recessions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.21033/cfl-2019-425

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