Blending Traditional and Alternative Labor Market Data with CHURN

Scott Brave, Ben Henken and Ezra Karger
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Ben Henken: https://www.chicagofed.org/people/h/henken-ben
Ezra Karger: https://www.chicagofed.org/people/k/karger-ezra

Chicago Fed Letter, 2025, vol. 506

Abstract: In this article, we present a new real-time model called CHURN—short for Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Nowcast. CHURN provides a weekly tracking estimate for the civilian unemployment rate (UR) produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). To do so, CHURN blends monthly statistics on job flows (i.e., job-finding and job-separation rates) from the BLS and other traditional labor market indicators with alternative high-frequency indicators from private sector sources.

Keywords: unemployment; Job flows; Nowcasting; high-frequency data; Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C53 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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