Forecasting Inflation During the Pandemic: Who Got It Right?

Francois Gourio and Kavitya Sarma

Chicago Fed Letter, 2025, vol. 513, 11

Abstract: The sudden rise in inflation that started in 2021 was the largest in 40 years for the United States. The rapidity, size, and persistence of this increase took most observers by surprise. In this article, we conduct a retrospective analysis and compare the accuracy of inflation projections made before, during, and after the Covid-19 pandemic by three groups of people: individual households, professional forecasters, and policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System.

Keywords: Inflation; Forecasting; Price level; Deflation; Monetary policy; central banks and their policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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