New Trimmed Import and Export Growth Rates Offer a Better Perspective on Underlying Trends

Thomas R. Cook and Johannes Matschke ()
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Johannes Matschke: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research-staff/johannes-matschke/

Economic Bulletin, 2026, 5

Abstract: Forecasts of imports and exports are important tools for understanding U.S. economic growth. However, imports and exports can be highly volatile, making import and export growth difficult to forecast. We introduce a new data product from the Kansas City Fed: trimmed import and export growth rates. These trimmed growth rates remove less informative subcomponents of the aggregate growth rates, helping to reveal underlying trends and improve forecast accuracy.

Date: 2026
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