Geopolitical Distance and Targeted Trade: Evidence from Product-Level Export Controls

Bontu Ankit Patro and Ana Maria Santacreu

No 2026-014, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: Trade policy in advanced economies is closely intertwined with concerns about technology and geopolitical rivalry. Using product-level data on export-related trade interventions, we characterize how contemporary export-side interventions are allocated across products, destinations, and bilateral trade relationships. We show that export controls are broad in regulatory scope but economically concentrated on high-value trade flows. Export controls disproportionately target high-technology products and economically important trade relationships, while geopolitical distance shapes their allocation in a nonlinear manner, with the strongest associations for high-technology trade between geopolitical rivals. Finally, a decomposition of targeting patterns shows that modern export controls are organized primarily around products rather than destinations, consistent with a technology-centered regulatory framework.

Keywords: trade policy; geopolitics; export controls; technology; non-tariff barriers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2026-07-14
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DOI: 10.20955/wp.2026.014

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