What Drives Business Cycles?

Liyu Dou, Paul Ho and Thomas Lubik

Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2025, vol. 25, issue 37

Abstract: There is no clear pattern as to whether inflation tends to rise or fall during recessions. The apparent lack of correlation masks the fact that inflation has in fact risen and fallen with GDP over individual business cycles. The inconsistent historical patterns wash out on average but suggest policymakers should use data to discern the underlying drivers of any specific business cycle.

Keywords: business; surveys (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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