Leaving uncertainty behind: A cross-country analysis of fertility intentions

Wioletta Grzenda, Magdalena Smyk and Lucas van der Velde

No 119, GRAPE Working Papers from GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics

Abstract: We conceptualize individual-level resilience as the ability of men and women to form plans about future fertility, either in positive or negative terms. We study which factors predict fertility intentions with an emphasis on interactions between micro and macro factors based on the second wave of the Gender and Generation Program Survey (2024) concerning ten developed European countries using Random Forest. Our model shows that factors linked to resilience are valuable predictors of fertility intentions, particularly factors defined at the individual level: difficulties across life domains (such as health, or housing) predict greater uncertainty in fertility intentions; whereas variables associated with family resources, such as education or religiosity, predict more positive fertility intentions. Variables at an aggregate level, such as the intensity of the pandemic, are weaker predictors. Our model does not find large interactions between micro and macro variables.Length: 66 pages

Keywords: resilience; fertility intentions; GGP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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