“Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections

Ira Sohn

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2008, issue 9, 43-48

Abstract: Twenty-five years ago, a team led by Nobel laureate Wassily Leontief applied the United Nations World Input-Output Model to make forecasts of world fuel and mineral resources for the year 2000 and beyond. Ira Sohn, a member of that team, reflects on his experience with this long-term forecasting endeavor. Noting that long-term forecasting is fraught with uncertainties, Ira analyzes the sources of the forecasting errors made and suggests ways to improve long-term modeling. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:43-48

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