Diagnosing Forecast Adjustment Behavior: A Three-Pathway Framework

Francis Martinson, Daniel Osei Ofosu and Francisca Martinson

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2026, issue 82, 5-13

Abstract: The authors propose a framework for distinguishing cognitive errors from legitimate corrective intervention and incentive-driven behavior. These three error pathways require fundamentally different interventions. The article provides practitioners with diagnostic indicators and an intervention guide to identify which pathway is operating and how to appropriately respond. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2026

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2026:i:82:p:5-13

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