Methodological approaches to forecasting non-oil and non-gas tax revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation

Sergey Belev, Nikita Moguchev and Evgeniy Matveev
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Sergey Belev: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Nikita Moguchev: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Evgeniy Matveev: RANEPA

Working Papers from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Abstract: This article presents the main results of research on the topic of Methodological approaches to forecasting non-oil and non-gas tax revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation. This article aims to identify approaches to forecasting non-oil and non-gas tax revenues and to study their applicability for the Russian Federation. Tax forecasting is a vital part of budget planning, and in the case of the current economic instability, the problem of precise forecasting of non-oil and non-gas revenues is of particular relevance. In this research, the existing methodological approaches to forecasting tax revenues were reviewed and systematized, their main disadvantages and advantages were identified and analyzed. The optimal forecasting method is non-structural modeling using BVAR - under certain conditions, the accuracy of such forecasts is higher then using structural models. At the same time, BVAR models are more flexible, less time-consuming and lack many of the disadvantages of non-structural models. An analysis of foreign experience shows that there is a tendency to use a portfolio of models for tax forecasting. Approbation of BVAR forecasting on Russian data shows that the effects of the main macro variables on tax revenues and on the proxies of the tax base are consistent with theoretical concepts. Thus, macroeconomic indicators are important factors in forecasting tax revenues, which is also confirmed by the sensitivity analysis of official forecasts. However, to improve the accuracy of the forecast, structural restrictions on the model should be imposed, so is worth considering the DSGE model with the fiscal sector along the way.

Keywords: Russian economy; non-oil and gas revenues; fiscal forecasting; BVAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D44 D73 H57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
Date: 2022, Revised 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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