Study on the Evolution and Forecast of Agricultural Raw Material Exports in Emerging Economies in Central and Eastern Europe Using Statistical Methods

Liviu Popescu, Mirela Găman, Laurențiu-Stelian Mihai (), Magdalena Mihai and Cristian Ovidiu Drăgan
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Liviu Popescu: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania
Mirela Găman: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania
Laurențiu-Stelian Mihai: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania
Magdalena Mihai: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania
Cristian Ovidiu Drăgan: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 17, 1-32

Abstract: This study examines the evolution of agricultural raw material exports in seven emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe (Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Croatia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 1995 to 2023 and provides forecasts for 2024–2026 using ARIMA models. The results indicate a general downward trend in the share of agricultural raw material exports within total exports, reflecting ongoing economic modernization and a structural shift toward higher value-added products and industrial sectors. Romania, Poland, and Hungary remain as significant players in the cereals market, while Slovakia and the Czech Republic show the most pronounced transitions toward non-agricultural industries. Croatia, however, follows an atypical trajectory, maintaining a relatively high share of agricultural exports. Statistical tests (Dickey–Fuller) confirm the non-stationarity of the initial series, necessitating differencing for ARIMA modeling. Correlation analyses reveal a synchronized regional dynamic, with strong links among Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria. Forecasts suggest continued decline or stabilization at low levels for most countries: Romania (0.45% in 2026), Poland (0.93%), Slovakia (0.62%), Bulgaria (0.51%), the Czech Republic (0.95%), and Hungary (0.53%), while Croatia is an exception, with a projected moderate increase to 4.19% in 2026. Although the share of raw agricultural exports is decreasing, the findings confirm that agriculture remains a strategic sector for food security and regional trade. The study recommends investments in processing, technological modernization, and export market diversification to strengthen the competitiveness and resilience of the agricultural sector in the context of global economic transformations.

Keywords: agricultural raw material exports; exports; time series; ARIMA; emerging economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:17:p:1811-:d:1732190

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