Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes

Fabienne Femenia and Alexandre Gohin ()
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Alexandre Gohin: SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales

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Abstract: The highly disputed effects of agricultural trade liberalisation are mostly simulated with static models. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the static simulation results to the consistent modelling of dynamic behaviours and to the linked specification of price/return expectations. Focusing on the scenario of a complete trade liberalisation of arable crop markets by developed countries, we find that available static results are quite robust compared to dynamic specifications and to most expectation schemes. Endogenous market fluctuations due to expectation errors may appear following trade liberalisation. These fluctuations are nevertheless limited by the many feedback effects revealed by our general equilibrium framework.

Keywords: Agricultural Policy; Dynamics; Endogenous Fluctuations; Expectations errors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Economic Modelling, 2011, 28 (4), pp.1950-1958. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2011.03.028⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes (2012)
Journal Article: Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes (2011)
Working Paper: Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01462676

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.03.028

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