Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach

Gilles Dufrénot () and Benjamin Keddad ()

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Abstract: This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5's business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycle synchronization trying to disentangle between intraregional and interregional synchronization by considering the important role of China, Japan and the US in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some regional and global leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5's business cycles.

Keywords: Business cycles synchronization; East Asia; Markov-switching; Monetary union; OCA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Published in Economic Modelling, 2014, 42 (C), pp.186-197. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.001⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach (2014)
Working Paper: Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach (2013)
Working Paper: Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01463108

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.001

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