Economic preferences predict higher-education choices

Thomas Epper (), Ernst Fehr, Kristoffer Hvidberg, Claus Kreiner, Søren Leth-Petersen and Basit Zafar
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Thomas Epper: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich, UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague
Kristoffer Hvidberg: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich, UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague
Claus Kreiner: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich, UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague
Søren Leth-Petersen: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich, UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague
Basit Zafar: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich, UCPH - Københavns Universitet = University of Copenhagen = Université de Copenhague

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Abstract: We examine whether individual preferences predict higher-education choices. According to standard human capital theory, differences in individuals' time and risk preferences lead to differences in educational investments. Testing this hypothesis is challenging, as it requires measuring individuals' preferences, doing so before they make educational investments, and subsequently observing their educational choices. We combine incentivized, experimentally elicited measures of time and risk preferences for a large, representative sample of 18- to 19-y-old Danes with administrative data on subsequent higher-education choices, program-specific earnings trajectories, prior school performance, and family background. In line with theory, we find that more patient individuals choose longer education programs and programs with steeper early-career earnings profiles, while more risk-averse individuals select programs with lower earnings dispersion and reduced downside risk. These relationships remain strong after controlling for cognitive ability, prior academic performance, and family background. Our findings suggest that preferences have a substantial impact on real-world educational investments and have implications for educational sorting.

Date: 2026
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05722358v1
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Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026, 123 (32), pp.e2610891123. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2610891123⟩

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Journal Article: Economic preferences predict higher-education choices (2026)
Working Paper: Economic Preferences Predict Higher-Education Choices (2026)
Working Paper: Economic Preferences Predict Higher Education Choices (2026)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05722358

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2610891123

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