De la première à la seconde globalisation

Michel Aglietta and Jacques Le Cacheux
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Michel Aglietta: CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique

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Abstract: The current globalization process contrasts with the first globalization, in the second half of the XIXth century, with respect to international flows of production factors and to monetary arrangements: during the first globalization, Great Britain, the then dominant power, was a high saving, high population country, exporting capital and labour, and maintaining a stable, coherent international monetary system, the gold standard; in the first decade of the XXIrst century, the US is a low saving economy, and demographic dynamism is mostly in the rest of the world. With the US a net importer of capital, and international monetary arrangements not conducive to equilibrating evolutions, the current globalization is unsustainable. With the help of the OLG-CE, world model INGENUE, we explore a sustainable world growth regime based on equilibrating capital flows, from rich and ageing countries to poorer and demographically more dynamic regions.

Keywords: Globalisation; Flux internationaux de capitaux; Modèles d’équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées; Régimes de croissance mondiale (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-07
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2007, 102, pp.155 - 204. ⟨10.3917/reof.102.0155⟩

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Journal Article: De la première à la seconde globalisation (2007)
Working Paper: De la première à la seconde globalisation (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03384676

DOI: 10.3917/reof.102.0155

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