Politiques monétaires: l’immobilisme en mouvement

Elena Stancanelli (), Valerie Chauvin (), Guillaume Chevillon, Odile Chagny (), Hélène Baudchon (), Gael Dupont (), Catherine Mathieu (), Christine Rifflart (), Danielle Schweisguth (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Xavier Timbeau, Eric Heyer, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni (), Amel Falah () and Sabine Le Bayon ()
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Elena Stancanelli: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor
Valerie Chauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Odile Chagny: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA
Hélène Baudchon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Strong demand is as much important as easy financing conditions. With recovery gaining momentum, the last thing central banks want to do is to take a chance with it. Firms are now in a more sound shape but households' indebtedness is still high. And financial markets have become very sensitive to the way central banks communicate. A prudent tightening will be accompanied by a small rise of long term interest rates. The Federal Reserve will start raising rates at the end of 2004 and by only 125 bp over 2005. The Bank of England, already engaged in a tightening cycle since last November, will push them up further by 100 bp. The European Central Bank will follow the move in 2005, raising rates only once by 25 bp. The Bank of Japan will make no change to its quantitative policy.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Financial sphere; Financial market; Politique monétaire; Sphère financière; Marché financier (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458741v1
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, 89, pp.163 - 182. ⟨10.3917/reof.089.0163⟩

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Working Paper: Politiques monétaires: l’immobilisme en mouvement (2004)
Working Paper: Politiques monétaires: l’immobilisme en mouvement (2004)
Working Paper: Politiques monétaires: l’immobilisme en mouvement (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458741

DOI: 10.3917/reof.089.0163

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