Méprise sur la reprise

Valerie Chauvin (), Guillaume Chevillon (), Gael Dupont (), Mathieu Plane, Eric Heyer and Matthieu Lemoine
Additional contact information
Valerie Chauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

SciencePo Working papers Main from HAL

Abstract: With an annual rate of 0.2%, the French economy underwent in 2003 the lowest growth since the 1993 recession. For the first time since 1997, it also grew more slowly that the euro area owing to its asthenic external trade. However, France will benefit in 2004 from a record number of workable days and early retirement measures which will help the unemployed. Hence, the French economy may well take advantage of the international recovery to boost domestic demand and investment. Growth might, thus, be sustained enough for France to respect its public deficit obligations towards Brussels. Unfortunately, we forecast a more uneven path until 2005: the lagged effects of the appreciation of the euro and restrictive economic policies will depress an otherwise buoyant growth rate to some sluggish 1.5% in 2004 and a return to the long term potential of 2.3% in 2005.

Keywords: Politique économique; Taux d’épargne; Croissance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03458749
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, 89, pp.37 - 82. ⟨10.3917/reof.089.0037⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03458749/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Méprise sur la reprise (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458749

DOI: 10.3917/reof.089.0037

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SciencePo Working papers Main from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics ().